Innovation Tournaments: Creating and Selecting Exceptional Opportunities by Christian Terwiesch & Karl Ulrich

Author:Christian Terwiesch & Karl Ulrich
Language: eng
Format: mobi
ISBN: 9781422152225
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
Published: 2009-06-08T14:00:00+00:00

TABLE 6-1

Historical probability of success (POS) at each clinical milestone for a historical sample of compounds submitted to a regulatory body for approval.

Indication/disease Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Alzheimer’s disease 0.08 0.24 0.37

Anxiety disorders 0.01 0.07 0.17

Arrhythmias 0.02 0.06 0.29

Asthma 0.20 0.30 0.78

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder 0.39 0.54 0.72

Breast cancer 0.41 0.48 0.89

Cardiovascular disorders 0.27 0.45 0.75

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 0.25 0.42 0.73

Congestive heart failure 0.27 0.47 0.64

Depression 0.09 0.26 0.48

Diabetes mellitus 0.18 0.35 0.60

Epilepsy 0.17 0.39 0.65

Erectile dysfunction 0.48 0.60 0.80

Gastric ulcer 0.27 0.38 0.75

HIV-1 infections 0.17 0.32 0.63

Hepatitis B 0.71 0.77 0.97

Leukemia 0.38 0.51 0.89

Migraine 0.27 0.45 0.72

Multiple sclerosis 0.13 0.30 0.50

Ovarian cancer 0.19 0.30 0.65

Pain 0.36 0.48 0.85

Parkinson’s disease 0.28 0.46 0.70

Postmenopausal osteoporosis 0.49 0.69 0.84

Schizophrenia 0.29 0.38 0.85

Stroke 0.07 0.23 0.34

Thrombosis 0.14 0.31 0.65

Ulcerative colitis 0.10 0.24 0.43

Sources: K. Girotra, C. Terwiesch, and K. Ulrich, “Risk Management in New Product Portfolios: A Study of Late Stage Drug Failures,” Management Science 53, no. 3 (2007): 1452–1466 and ADIS International.

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